eod 2026-09-17
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ASML

opensemis

ASML Holding NV

conviction over time

convictionbuysellcloseholds at the last score until you record another

timeline · 2 entries

  1. 2025-05-09thesis
    9/10Conviction 9 out of 10

    A monopoly on the machines nobody else can build. If the whole industry expands, this expands with it and cannot be routed around.

    would prove me wrong

    Export restrictions cut a major market, or an order book that stops growing for two quarters running.

  2. 2025-05-13bought12 @ $2135.3782
  3. 2026-01-24update
    8/10Conviction 8 out of 10

    Export rules tightened. That is half of my stated falsifier and I am writing it down rather than explaining it away, which is what I would have done a year ago.

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