eod 2026-09-17
TSM$430.26▲ 3.00%SOXX$519.10▲ 3.39%AAPL$337.00▲ 1.38%COST$893.93▲ 0.02%MU$977.50▲ 5.50%UNH$375.21▼ 0.01%PFE$27.64▲ 0.66%NVDA$219.34▲ 2.54%SHOP$128.60▼ 1.05%ASML$1,629.67▲ 1.71%DIS$105.35▼ 1.53%ETSY$72.34▼ 1.52%VOO$701.03▲ 1.12%
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NVDA

opensemisai infra

NVIDIA Corp

conviction over time

convictionbuysellcloseholds at the last score until you record another

timeline · 3 entries

  1. 2025-02-28thesis
    9/10Conviction 9 out of 10

    Everyone needs the picks and shovels and there is one credible supplier. Capacity is the only constraint and it is being solved. I am as sure about this as I get.

    would prove me wrong

    A credible second source ships at volume, or hyperscaler capex guidance flattens for two consecutive quarters.

  2. 2025-03-04bought40 @ $277.568
  3. 2025-10-26update
    9/10Conviction 9 out of 10

    Nothing has changed except the price, which is up a lot. Adding here feels obvious, which is usually the moment to be careful.

  4. 2025-10-27bought25 @ $290.579
  5. 2026-04-24review
    7/10Conviction 7 out of 10

    Neither of my falsifiers has happened. But I notice I have stopped asking whether the price already contains all of this, which is a different question and the one I should have been writing down.

    review scheduled 2026-10-05

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last close

$219.34

on 2026-09-17

at your last entry

$208.27+5.32% since

close on 2026-04-24, the day you wrote it

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